Is Social Media In Decline, and Where Do Social Media Apps Go To Die?

The 4th of October 2021 was a red letter date for many people worldwide, well ok nearly 3 billion users across continents found themselves in the worst possible predicament of social darkness, which for many felt like a lifetime, but in reality lasted 6 hours. For many of us, we were left in the precarious situation of a social media blackout, a paralysis of engagement, a permanent mute of our communication. It was the worst recorded outage in Facebook’s history since 2008, but of course back then it only affected some 80 million users.

But for those 6 hours on that day, many people who relied heavily on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp as their major forms of communication, were left in limbo, and with the uncertainty of what to do for the interim?... Either seek solace in alternative social media, or resort to more common forms of communication from yesteryear, SMS & MMS texts, phone calling or plain old emailing.

The global impact, for many individuals, businesses, and enterprises was significant, losses totalling well over five billion dollars an hour. So what happened next?… Well it wasn’t long before it was business as usual, but for some us, we were left with the tantalising questions of what do we do if this happens again?, and where do we go from here? How can we avoid such extensive levels of dependency, financial and operational constraint if someone pulled the plug again?... Well… roll the clock forward to the tail end of 2022, and with the life of Twitter hanging in the balance and by a thread, let’s go back to basics.

In a nutshell user-generated content, connectivity, and interactivity are the defining characteristics of social media. The use of social media has become a daily requirement in today's culture. Primarily utilized for decision-making, news and information access, and social interaction, it is a useful tool for sharing, creating, and disseminating information as well as communicating with people locally and globally. Through reviews, advertising, and marketing strategies, social media can affect consumers' purchasing decisions. In essence, it has a significant impact on our capacity for communication, the development of relationships personal and business, information access and dissemination, and ultimately in making the best decisions.

As technology has developed over time, small businesses in particular have become more and more reliant on digital tools to succeed. Companies have seen a tremendous amount of transition, undergoing a massive shift to the internet arena, from e-commerce storefronts to mobile apps, community hubs and enabling backlinks. Social media is one of the major technical advancements that has enabled small businesses to successfully connect clients globally. And there are innumerable unique and inventive ways that brands may connect with their current customers and win over new ones thanks to social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube, Pinterest, and many more.

There is no denying that the world of social media is prosperous but also saturated, and that doesn't seem to be changing anytime soon. As of 2018, approximately 97 percent of Fortune 500 companies use at least one social media channel to advertise their activities and enhance effective stakeholder communication. Additionally, there were 3.78 billion active social media users worldwide as of 2021, a 5% growth from 2020 during the Covid crisis. And more recently an analysis from Kepios has shown that there are 4.74 billion social media users around the world since October 2022, equating to 59.3 percent of the total global population. Given this small but quite sizeable increase, it is obvious that Micro Enterprises, and SMEs may expand and be successful in 2023 and beyond by utilizing the power of consistent social media performers.

But why the need to highlight ‘consistent’? As one of the most well-liked and successful platforms for marketing and advertising on a worldwide scale, social media is not without its scars. People initially asserted that social media was a passing trend when it was first introduced, and indeed some platforms have been and gone, or struggled to evolve with its audiences’ needs and requirements. And in recent months giants like Twitter, have placed their users in turmoil, as it tries to undertake a course correction or possibly a new direction to facilitate its future under its new leadership with Elon Musk at the helm.

Social Media once deemed a ‘fad’, and with a few casualties along the way like, ‘Myspace’, ‘Vine’ and ‘Viber’ to name but a few, in favour of stronger market players, it has developed into a network of channels that marketers utilize to reach out to a targeted or even large audiences and moving beyond social media centric circles for friends and family.

There is of course the big question, is social media going to become extinct in the near future? Will the cynics finally get to say, "I told you so," in 20**? The gist of it is no, It's unlikely that social media will soon become obsolete and disappear, and here’s why….

The main reason is that social media platforms are continually evolving. If you have been using social media for 12 years or more, you have probably noticed how different it is now from how it was when you first started using it. Comparing modern social media to the once-dominant MySpace for instance, it is hardly recognisable.

There is also a wealth of new players rather than platforms added to the mix. Whether you like them or not, influencers are a significant part of a cult-like society that has a significant online presence. More people will leverage influencer marketing by using social media as their main tactic. Be aware that influencer marketing is expected to develop and spread while SEO may be on its way out. And if you can find and click with an audience, it’s a fantastic moment to start influencing people if you want to.

One element that has gone through probably the most significant of changes is advertising. From the 1990s and the middle of the 2000s, banner advertising may have had their place in their day, but they simply do not receive the hits they once did. On social networks, there are more social media leader led advertisements, sponsored ads, and posts that don't appear to be sales- or promotion-related. Businesses all across the world have been forced to re-evaluate their social media strategies as a result.

Today, video is huge, people are engaging with the visual movement more than text. In fact, you won't likely gain any visibility on social media if you don't have any video material. With live and recorded films, people like the intimate yet virtual engagement they experience. Instagram, Facebook, Tik Tok, and the previously popular Vine; another video-focused app, all allow users to instantly produce compelling films. Live videos are a current attraction on Tik Tok and a significant draw for an audience. And despite being the oldest player in the room, as they continue to grow, develop, and expand, YouTube is still aggressively attracting viewers and users, 2.6 billion users to be exact as of last year.

Despite the fact that many individuals still use laptops and desktop computers, the current trend is toward greater mobility and that is because the younger generation is moving in that direction. Some apps like Snapchat and Tik Tok are only available as mobile apps. You must download their apps in order to use them. You can use mobile technology on laptops and desktops with newer operating systems, but most of these are tablet and phone mobile apps. It's expected that more social media platforms will switch to mobile-only apps. In addition, you might observe an increase in new, mobile-only social media in the future.

These days few influencers actually desire to engage in political discourse, and there are enough users who want to express their opinions and ideas that social media to an extent cannot easily bar all political discourse from its platforms. And in case you hadn't noticed, political figures are using social media platforms more and more. And in the coming years, with a highly volatile political climate, politicians will keep using social media to get our attention whether we like it or not.

So from the sublime to the ridiculous, from basic posts about what we had for breakfast, to a cesspit of toxic culture and hate, for some, Social Media platforms have broken boundaries, and lives, and in some cases without any legal recourse. Some may argue that social media is a long way from its heady days of positivity, social fun, love, and trust. So let’s take a moment to see where it all began.

Social media networks as we know them now did not even exist not too long ago. It has come a long way from the early days of JavaScript websites allowing us customized profiles to decorate with personalised content, wallpaper, and skins to exhibit to our friends, to the simple discussion boards that have existed since the advent of the web. Even though the social media landscape now is very different from that of 20 years ago, the major platforms from 5 or 10 years ago are still the most popular ones. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram.

Nobody has come close to dethroning the three major social platforms in the west since they seized the marketplace. Indeed we have seen the likes of popular contenders like Vine's rise and fall, a privacy-focused social platform's takeover attempt, and few rebellious social apps have all occurred, but none of them have been able to compete with the leaders. It also hasn't been a scandal-free run for those in power either; according to a survey, 40% of respondents believe Facebook is the company they trust the least with their personal information, while Twitter was and is perceived as stifling and now engaging in belligerent free speech while not sufficiently stifling content.

Even Instagram has been under fire for failing to take down violent photographs of self-harm, with one young girl's father blaming the platform for her daughter's death. Any one of these scandals would be enough to sink any smaller platform, yet due to these social platforms' enormous size, they are practically unstoppable. Despite this, there is no chance that a new social platform can ever achieve the same level of success as the current leaders. But why?

The first uphill struggle, is building trust. It is accurate to say that public faith in social media has all but completely vanished. People are aware that when they use social media, they are giving these large corporations access to their personal information, but they generally view this as a trade-off for having a platform to communicate with their friends, send messages to others, and learn what their neighbours, colleagues or peers are up to. A few social media platforms have tried to stand out with their own privacy-first social platform in response to the numerous privacy concerns over the years, including a significant information leak of 50 million accounts on Facebook, and the Cambridge Analytica affair. However, despite media support, these platforms have failed.

Take for example the "ELLO" platform, which was dubbed the ‘Facebook Killer’. Launched 8 years ago, with a manifesto that claimed to distinguish it from other social networks like Facebook. The site promised it would never sell user data, proclaiming "You Are Not a Product". The social network officially launched in 2014, although its membership registration was only by invitation. At one stage it was drawing on average 30,000 to 50,000 new users per hour, and at its peak had attracted 3 million regular users. But alas its light burnt very brightly for a very short time. Their mainstream status had vanished a few years later, but in its wake it didn’t end up on the scrap heap like so many other ventures.

Instead, it has evolved with a niche purpose, a place for digital artists to share their talents and work and has succeeded in curating a small but loyal community following of 1 million users. What it has demonstrated, for all its original intended purpose, it would find solace and marketability as a community based platform, and thus a blueprint for others to follow. In the coming years, more platforms have taken a leaf out of Ello’s book, and very effectively too, with bespoke engagement, content and with niche groups garnering attention. And much like the ethos of Steve Jobs, who believed that they couldn’t look at the competition and say that they could do it better, they in fact would look at the competition and say they would do it differently. Probably not the best example, but Donald Trump’s vision of a more transparent platform than Twitter, with his egregious Truth Social, has garnered a cult following, and not much of anything else, thankfully in part to Apple, Amazon and Google’s influence when controlling the marketplaces where social or otherwise, apps either prosper or go to die. Truth be told, back in the day he had little or no alternative.

And from niche to features. Retail stores for instance can sell and advertise their products on Instagram through in-app connections. Twitter Moments provides us with a variety of short articles to read in addition to tweets. And Facebook has always provided us with a wealth of features and add-ons, access to a marketplace, a calendar, the weather, games to play, and the option to look for regional events. The three leading platforms all aspire to be "jacks of all trades" in their offerings, making it so you won't necessarily need to go elsewhere to acquire other information. Indeed with the latter, going one step further and acquiring the competition.

Ultimately, for many of us, we are left in the quandary of why switch to another social media site that will provide nothing more than what we now have or less when social media networks already provide all that we need? Especially, given the fact, that the top performing platforms are also in the best positions to introduce new features in the future because they have a large development team and the resources to do so.

For some of us though, saying goodbye hurts. It's challenging to leave behind all the content you've curated on the previous social networking site, including your messages, posts, images, and friends as well. This is true of any significant transfer to a new social media platform. It might be challenging to persuade just one friend to use a new platform, let alone trying to convince all of your friends, supporters, or audience to use it. The issue with new social media platforms is that it takes time for them to develop naturally and become something that people are ready to choose over other options accessible to them.

Indeed a decision not taken lightly by those who were permanently banned on platforms like Twitter, then pursued other platforms, and have thought twice now about returning in the wake of a wave of reinstatements by the current CEO, Elon Musk.

But in the twists and turns of the fortunes of various platforms, a rising number of people are deciding to permanently abandon the social media space due to social media weariness. A new platform won't work for them since more and more individuals are finding ways to live their lives without being bound by the realm of social media. A recycled version of what we've already seen on social media won't entice many new people to sign up, or existing groups to switch and as more and more users stop using it, the target population you have to market your platform will ultimately get smaller and smaller.

And whilst for now it appears that the use of social media is growing globally, it could be argued that this is primarily due to the various regions of the world that have only recently been exposed to it. These regions are therefore going through the cycle before ultimately giving up on these very platforms.

So for now, we can see that the platforms that are currently dominant will be here for a while to come, leaving no room for any new, profitable social media platforms in the future. The odds are definitely stacked against any potential venture because there are many factors preventing any success: trust in social media is declining, social media platforms already provide us with everything we need from one of these platforms, challenges arise when bringing everyone to a new platform, and social media fatigue is becoming increasingly prevalent.